Second quarter solar container market forecast

How did California's commercial solar market perform in Q2 2024?

The commercial solar segment set a second quarter record, growing by 27% compared to Q2 2024, and adding 585 MW dc of new capacity. Growth in California drove this increase – a healthy pipeline of NEM 2.0 installations continues to come online, making up 90% of commercial projects in the state.

How will New York's solar market perform in 2025?

New volumes in New York also declined slightly, even as the state continues to represent 52% of the total market. We expect the national community solar market to contract 22% this year, following a particularly strong 2024 for the segment. However, installed capacity in 2025 will still exceed 2023 volumes, reaching approximately 1.5 GWdc.

How will the community solar market change in 2025?

The community solar market will experience a more significant contraction, with capacity declining by 22% year-over-year in 2025, following a record year in 2024. Lastly, utility-scale installations will drop by 2% in 2025 after two solid years of growth.

How much solar capacity did the US solar industry install in Q1 2025?

The US solar industry installed 10.8 gigawatts-direct current (GWdc) of capacity in the first quarter of 2025. Despite both a quarterly and annual decline in capacity, Q1 2025 was the industry’s fourth-best quarter. The utility-scale segment followed a similar trend, with 9 GWdc of capacity, which is lower than both Q1 2024 and Q4 2024.

How much will the US solar industry contract in 2025?

The US solar industry is projected to contract by 2% annually between 2025 and 2030 in our Base case but still add nearly 43 GWdc on average each year. In the near term, solar installations will decline at an average rate of 7% from 2025 to 2027.

How much solar capacity did the residential segment install in Q2 2025?

In Q2 2025, the residential segment installed 1,064 MW dc of solar capacity, declining 9% year-over-year and 3% quarter-over-quarter. High interest rates, economic and policy uncertainty continue to be significant challenges for the segment.